31ST DEC 2009Sterling staged a strong broad based rebound overnight as traders pared short positions ahead of year end. Momentum in Sterling continues today which saw it staying firmly above 1.6 level against the greenback while EUR/GBP is also trading below 0.895 level. Dollar's recovery fades as gold rebounds back to above 1100 level. The development argues that dollar's consolidation is still in progress and would remain soft on the last trading day of the year.
Looking at the dollar index, the recovery from 77.33 failed below 78.45 resistance and weakens sharply today. Consolidations from 78.54 is likely still in progress and should have just started another falling leg to 77.33 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 74.19 to 78.45 at 76.82 and bring rally resumption.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5907; (P) 1.6001; (R1) 1.6169; More
GBP/USD's strong rebound from 1.5829 and the break of 1.6064 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is formed. Bias is flipped to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.6408 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.6047 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat first.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Focus now turns to 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) for confirmation. Break there will argue that whole down trend form 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
On the upside, break of 1.6408 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has completed and GBP/USD is still bounded in medium term range of 1.5706/7043. In other words, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0458; (P) 1.0517; (R1) 1.0611; More.
Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment as USD/CAD was supported by lower trend line resistance and rebounded strongly. Note that break of 1.0744 resistance is still needed to indicate that choppy consolidation from 1.0851 has completed. Otherwise, such consolidation might still continue with risk of another fall. Below 1.0461 will flip intraday bias back to the downside again. Though, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 1.0205 support to conclude such consolidations and bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8871; (P) 0.8932; (R1) 0.9007; More
AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8734 resumes after brief retreat and at this point, further rise could still be seen as long as 0.8899 minor support holds. Nevertheless, with 0.9013 resistance intact, our view remains unchanged. That is, rebound from 0.8743 is treated as correction to fall from 0.9321 only. Below 0.8899 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8734 and below. However, note that sustained trading above 0.9013 will dampen this view and mixes up the outlook. Focus will then be turned to 0.9193 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8915/8945 support zone confirm the bearish case that AUD/USD has already topped out at 0.9404 in medium term, by completing a head and shoulder top (ls: 0.9326, h: 0.9404, rs: 0.9321). Deeper decline should now be seen to correct the whole rise from 0.6008 and should target 0.7702/0.8626 support zone. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen there, at lease initially, and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9193 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4287; (P) 1.4324; (R1) 1.4375; More
EUR/USD's fall was contained at 1.4272 and rebounded strongly. The development indicates that correction from 1.4217 is still in progress and intraday bias is flipped to the upside for 1.4457 and above. Nevertheless, we'd still expect upside of the consolidation to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring resumption of fall from 1.5143. Below 1.4272 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.4217 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall fro 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0338; (P) 1.0379; (R1) 1.0408; More
USD/CHF's recovery was limited at 1.0420 as reversed. The development suggests that correction from 1.0506 is still in progress and intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.0278 and below. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring resumption of rise from 0.9916. Above 1.0420 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed for medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.97; (P) 92.36; (R1) 92.83; More.
USD/JPY retreats after hitting as high as 92.75 but still, with 91.12 support intact, short term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 84.81 is still in favor to extend to 100% projection of 84.81 to 90.75 from 87.36 at 93.30. On the downside, though, notice bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 91.12 support will indicate that rise fro 84.81 has possibly completed and will turn outlook bearish for 87.36 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, there is no clear indication of medium term reversal yet as USD/JPY is still trading well below 55 weeks EMA (now at 94.54) as well as the trend line resistance at 94.44. Whole down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress and might extend towards 1995 low of 79.75 after completing the rebound from 84.81. However, note that sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5907; (P) 1.6001; (R1) 1.6169; More
GBP/USD's strong rebound from 1.5829 and the break of 1.6064 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is formed. Bias is flipped to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.6408 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.6047 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat first.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Focus now turns to 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) for confirmation. Break there will argue that whole down trend form 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
On the upside, break of 1.6408 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has completed and GBP/USD is still bounded in medium term range of 1.5706/7043. In other words, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4303; (P) 1.4380; (R1) 1.4430; More
As discussed before, EUR/USD's recovery from 1.4217 should have completed at 1.4457 already after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 1.4217 support. Break will confirm fall resumption and should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. On the upside, above 1.4457 will bring another rise to extend the corrective rise fro 1.4217, but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring resumption of fall from 1.5143.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall fro 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5822; (P) 1.5945; (R1) 1.6024; More
GBP/USD recovers strongly after diving to 1.5829 earlier today. At this point, At this point, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6064 resistance holds and GBP/USD is still expected to fall further to 1.5706 cluster support next (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691). On the upside, though, break of 1.6064 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and stronger rebound should then be seen.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Focus now turns to 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) for confirmation. Break there will argue that whole down trend form 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
On the upside, break of 1.6408 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has completed and GBP/USD is still bounded in medium term range of 1.5706/7043. In other words, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0300; (P) 1.0343; (R1) 1.0407; More
As noted before, USD/CHF's pullback from 1.0506 might have completed at 1.0278 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.0506 at 1.0281. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for a test on 1.0506 resistance. Break will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed for medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590 next. On the downside, below 1.0278 will bring another fall to continue the correction from 1.0506. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.65; (P) 91.86; (R1) 92.20; More.
USD/JPY's rally continues in early US session and breaks 92.31 resistance. As noted before, short term outlook remains bullish as long as 91.12 support holds. Current rally from 84.81 is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 84.81 to 90.75 from 87.36 at 93.30 next. On the downside, though, notice bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 91.12 support will indicate that rise fro 84.81 has possibly completed and will turn outlook bearish for 87.36 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, there is no clear indication of medium term reversal yet as USD/JPY is still trading well below 55 weeks EMA (now at 94.54) as well as the trend line resistance at 94.44. Whole down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress and might extend towards 1995 low of 79.75 after completing the rebound from 84.81. However, note that sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
Looking at the dollar index, the recovery from 77.33 failed below 78.45 resistance and weakens sharply today. Consolidations from 78.54 is likely still in progress and should have just started another falling leg to 77.33 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 74.19 to 78.45 at 76.82 and bring rally resumption.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5907; (P) 1.6001; (R1) 1.6169; More
GBP/USD's strong rebound from 1.5829 and the break of 1.6064 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is formed. Bias is flipped to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.6408 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.6047 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat first.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Focus now turns to 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) for confirmation. Break there will argue that whole down trend form 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
On the upside, break of 1.6408 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has completed and GBP/USD is still bounded in medium term range of 1.5706/7043. In other words, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0458; (P) 1.0517; (R1) 1.0611; More.
Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment as USD/CAD was supported by lower trend line resistance and rebounded strongly. Note that break of 1.0744 resistance is still needed to indicate that choppy consolidation from 1.0851 has completed. Otherwise, such consolidation might still continue with risk of another fall. Below 1.0461 will flip intraday bias back to the downside again. Though, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 1.0205 support to conclude such consolidations and bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8871; (P) 0.8932; (R1) 0.9007; More
AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8734 resumes after brief retreat and at this point, further rise could still be seen as long as 0.8899 minor support holds. Nevertheless, with 0.9013 resistance intact, our view remains unchanged. That is, rebound from 0.8743 is treated as correction to fall from 0.9321 only. Below 0.8899 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8734 and below. However, note that sustained trading above 0.9013 will dampen this view and mixes up the outlook. Focus will then be turned to 0.9193 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8915/8945 support zone confirm the bearish case that AUD/USD has already topped out at 0.9404 in medium term, by completing a head and shoulder top (ls: 0.9326, h: 0.9404, rs: 0.9321). Deeper decline should now be seen to correct the whole rise from 0.6008 and should target 0.7702/0.8626 support zone. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen there, at lease initially, and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9193 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4287; (P) 1.4324; (R1) 1.4375; More
EUR/USD's fall was contained at 1.4272 and rebounded strongly. The development indicates that correction from 1.4217 is still in progress and intraday bias is flipped to the upside for 1.4457 and above. Nevertheless, we'd still expect upside of the consolidation to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring resumption of fall from 1.5143. Below 1.4272 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.4217 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall fro 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0338; (P) 1.0379; (R1) 1.0408; More
USD/CHF's recovery was limited at 1.0420 as reversed. The development suggests that correction from 1.0506 is still in progress and intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.0278 and below. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring resumption of rise from 0.9916. Above 1.0420 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed for medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.97; (P) 92.36; (R1) 92.83; More.
USD/JPY retreats after hitting as high as 92.75 but still, with 91.12 support intact, short term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 84.81 is still in favor to extend to 100% projection of 84.81 to 90.75 from 87.36 at 93.30. On the downside, though, notice bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 91.12 support will indicate that rise fro 84.81 has possibly completed and will turn outlook bearish for 87.36 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, there is no clear indication of medium term reversal yet as USD/JPY is still trading well below 55 weeks EMA (now at 94.54) as well as the trend line resistance at 94.44. Whole down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress and might extend towards 1995 low of 79.75 after completing the rebound from 84.81. However, note that sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5907; (P) 1.6001; (R1) 1.6169; More
GBP/USD's strong rebound from 1.5829 and the break of 1.6064 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is formed. Bias is flipped to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.6408 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.6047 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat first.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Focus now turns to 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) for confirmation. Break there will argue that whole down trend form 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
On the upside, break of 1.6408 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has completed and GBP/USD is still bounded in medium term range of 1.5706/7043. In other words, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4303; (P) 1.4380; (R1) 1.4430; More
As discussed before, EUR/USD's recovery from 1.4217 should have completed at 1.4457 already after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 1.4217 support. Break will confirm fall resumption and should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. On the upside, above 1.4457 will bring another rise to extend the corrective rise fro 1.4217, but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring resumption of fall from 1.5143.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall fro 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5822; (P) 1.5945; (R1) 1.6024; More
GBP/USD recovers strongly after diving to 1.5829 earlier today. At this point, At this point, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6064 resistance holds and GBP/USD is still expected to fall further to 1.5706 cluster support next (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691). On the upside, though, break of 1.6064 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and stronger rebound should then be seen.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Focus now turns to 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) for confirmation. Break there will argue that whole down trend form 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
On the upside, break of 1.6408 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.6875 has completed and GBP/USD is still bounded in medium term range of 1.5706/7043. In other words, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0300; (P) 1.0343; (R1) 1.0407; More
As noted before, USD/CHF's pullback from 1.0506 might have completed at 1.0278 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.0506 at 1.0281. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for a test on 1.0506 resistance. Break will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed for medium term support turned resistance at 1.0590 next. On the downside, below 1.0278 will bring another fall to continue the correction from 1.0506. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1.0175 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1032). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.65; (P) 91.86; (R1) 92.20; More.
USD/JPY's rally continues in early US session and breaks 92.31 resistance. As noted before, short term outlook remains bullish as long as 91.12 support holds. Current rally from 84.81 is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 84.81 to 90.75 from 87.36 at 93.30 next. On the downside, though, notice bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 91.12 support will indicate that rise fro 84.81 has possibly completed and will turn outlook bearish for 87.36 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, there is no clear indication of medium term reversal yet as USD/JPY is still trading well below 55 weeks EMA (now at 94.54) as well as the trend line resistance at 94.44. Whole down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress and might extend towards 1995 low of 79.75 after completing the rebound from 84.81. However, note that sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
