Gold
Gold's choppy recovery from 1044.5 extend further to as high as 1098.4 last week, just shy of 1100 level. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but after all, we's still expect upside to be limited below 1126.4 resistance and bring another fall to continue the whole correction from 1227.5. Below 1063.3 will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 1044.5 will target 1000 psychological support next.
In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1126.4 resistance will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5. However, note that sustained trading below 1000 will dampen our view and put 931.3 key structural support into focus.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Gold's choppy recovery from 1044.5 extend further to as high as 1098.4 last week, just shy of 1100 level. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but after all, we's still expect upside to be limited below 1126.4 resistance and bring another fall to continue the whole correction from 1227.5. Below 1063.3 will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 1044.5 will target 1000 psychological support next.
In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1126.4 resistance will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5. However, note that sustained trading below 1000 will dampen our view and put 931.3 key structural support into focus.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Silver
Silver's choppy recovery from 14.65 continued last week but hit some resistance after meeting 4 hours 55 EMA. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidations cannot be ruled out. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 16.015 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 15.0 minor support will suggest that fall from 18.925 is resuming for medium term trend line support at 14.3 level. Decisive break there will indicate that downside momentum is still strong and should set the stage for 12.435 key support next.
In the bigger picture, silver's medium term rise from 8.4 has possibly completed at 19.50 already, after just missing mentioned 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. As noted before, such rise is viewed as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Fall from 19.50 is possibly the third leg of such consolidation pattern. We'd expect such fall to extend beyond 12.435 support to confirm this case and target a new low below 8.4 eventually. On the upside, above 16.765 support turned resistance is now needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Crude Oil
Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extended further to as high as 75.69 last week but last momentum since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral. Break of 72.60 minor support will indicate that such recovery has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 69.50 support first. Break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 83.95 towards next key support at 68.59. On the upside, above 75.69 will turn focus to 78.04 minor resistance. Break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.
In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
