EUR/USD Weekly Outlook :
EUR/USD resumed fall from 1.5143 last week and dived to as low as 1.4028 before turning sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, upside of the recovery is expected to be limited below 1.4334 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0428 will target next key cluster support at 1.3737.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, however, break of 1.4578 resistance will leave the fall from 1.5143 in three wave corrective structure and mixes up the outlook.
In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range correction that started from 1.6039. Another medium term decline should still be seen to 1.2329 and below. Break of 1.1639 support is possible based on 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. But downside will likely be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039). After all, the long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term correction from 1.6039.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY's fall from 93.74 extended further to as low as 89.77 last week despite some brief intra week recovery. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 87.36 support next. As noted before, whole rise from 84.10 should have completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. Break of 87.36 will confirm this case and indicate that medium term down trend is indeed resuming for another low below 84.81. ON the upside, above 90.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 91.86 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.71 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.07. Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 124.13 is still in progress after breaking out of the long term triangle pattern and a test on 79.75 low made in 1995 should be seen. The structure of the current fall from 101.43 will be important to determine whether 79.75 will be taken out decisively. Acceleration of the current fall from 101.43 will build up downside momentum which should then pull monthly MACD away from the signal line and will indicate that fall from 124.13 is resuming the multi-decade down trend. However, loss of downside momentum in the coming fall will indicate that it's possibly just part of a long term sideway pattern from 79.95 and strong support should be seen after breaching 79.75 to conclude the medium term fall.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6456 last week but reversed below mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and falls sharply to as low as 1.6086. The development indicates that corrective rise from 1.5829 has completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already and whole decline from 1.6875 should be resuming. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.5829 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 1.5706 key cluster support. On the upside, though, above 1.6284 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and turn focus back 1.6456 resistance
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503. However, note that break of 1.6456 resistance will in turn shift favor to the case that recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely developing into consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, should be limited by resistance zone of 1.7332/8236 and bring down trend resumption towards 1.4063 low. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 1.8236 fibonacci level holds.
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF surged to as high as 1.0494 last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.0506 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, current development indicates that whole rise from 0.9919 should be resuming. Hence, downside of the retreat from 1.0494 should be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0506 will target 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0996). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD's fall from 0.9327 extended further to as low as 0.8981last week and remains weak. Outlook in AUD/USD is quite mixed for the moment considering that dollar has been impressively strong elsewhere. Question is whether fall from 0.9327 is just a correction to rise from 0.8734 or it's developing into a larger decline. Nevertheless, in any case, initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 0.9145 minor resistance holds and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.8961. Sustained break there will shift favor to the case that fall fro 0.9327 is resuming the whole decline from 0.9404 and AUD/USD should drop through 0.8734 support. On other hand, strong rebound from 0.8961, or a break of 0.9145 minor resistance, will indicate that fall from 0.9327 is likely just a correction and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 0.9327 and then 0.9404.
In the bigger picture, the failure below 0.9404 high and deep pull back from 0.9327 mixes up the outlook of AUD/USD and we'll turn neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, one thing to note is that AUD/USD is losing upside momentum as seen with bearish divergence in daily MACD. Hence, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance as AUD/USD approaches 2008 high of 0.9849 and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8734 support will in turn revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.
In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD rebounded strongly last week and the break of 1.0412 resistance confirms that fall from 1.0744 has completed at 1.0223, ahead of 1.0205 key support as expected. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.0744 resistance next. Break there will also affirm the bullish view that choppy correction from 1.0851 has finished too. Stronger rise should then be seen to this 1.0851 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0462 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly in place and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above 1.0313 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. Break of 1.0851 will confirm this case by completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0205, 1.0223). In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. Also, in such case, we'll tentatively treat rise from 1.0205 as resumption of the whole up trend from 2007 low of 0.9056 and focus on the structure of the rise from 1.0205 for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP's fall extended to as low as 0.8650 last week before recovering. From a short term angle, some more recovery might be seen initially this week. But upside should be limited below 0.8855 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8686 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and bring fall resumption to 100% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8576 next.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates that rebound from 0.8399 has completed at 0.9410 already and fall from there could be the third leg of the whole correction pattern that started at 0.9799. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9153 resistance holds. Correction from 0.9799 could extend further to 0.7693/0.8186 support zone, with 100% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8399 from 0.9410 at 0.8010 in between.
In the long term picture, current development suggests correction from 0.9799 is still in progress and the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 is not ready to resume yet. Nevertheless, correction from 0.9799 is expected to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to continue to 261.8% projection of 0.5680 to 0.7258 from 0.6535 at 1.0666 eventually.
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4673 last week but continued to lose downside momentum and recovered. Touching of 1.4740 minor resistance turns intraday bias neutral and some consolidations could be seen in initially this week. Nevertheless, another fall is still expected as long as 1.4808 resistance holds. Below 1.4673 will target next key support level at 1.4577. However, note that break of 1.4808 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen to 1.4894/4988 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. A break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's fall fall from 134.36 extended further last week and the break of 126.88 support confirms that whole decline from 138.47 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 124.35 support and then 100% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 122.77 next. On the upside, above 128.38 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom might be in place on oversold condition and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 131.49 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of 126.88 support revives that case that medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as correction to long term down trend from 169.96, has completed last year at 139.21. Break of 124.35 support will further affirm this case. By then, we'll expect such long term down trend to resume for a new low below 112.10. On the upside, break of 134.36 resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view and suggest that EUR/JPY is still in consolidation to rise from 112.10 only. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. The corrective nature of the rise from 112.10 to 139.21 argues that whole fall from 169.96 is note completed yet. A break below 112.10 low will confirm that whole fall from 169.96 has resumed and should then target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's sharp fall last week and break of 145.96 support suggests that choppy rise from 139.26 has completed completed at 150.68 already. Also, consolidation pattern from 139.69 should have also finished too. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 141.99 support first. Break will affirm this bearish case and target 139.26 low next. On the upside, though, above 147.18 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and we'll stay neutral first in such case.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is possibly resuming as consolidation pattern from 139.69 has likely finished at 150.68 already. Break of 139.26 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. Break will further affirm the case that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.90 is resuming for another low below 118.81. This will remain the preferred view as long as 150.68 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.
EUR/USD resumed fall from 1.5143 last week and dived to as low as 1.4028 before turning sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, upside of the recovery is expected to be limited below 1.4334 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0428 will target next key cluster support at 1.3737.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, however, break of 1.4578 resistance will leave the fall from 1.5143 in three wave corrective structure and mixes up the outlook.
In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range correction that started from 1.6039. Another medium term decline should still be seen to 1.2329 and below. Break of 1.1639 support is possible based on 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. But downside will likely be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039). After all, the long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term correction from 1.6039.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY's fall from 93.74 extended further to as low as 89.77 last week despite some brief intra week recovery. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 87.36 support next. As noted before, whole rise from 84.10 should have completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. Break of 87.36 will confirm this case and indicate that medium term down trend is indeed resuming for another low below 84.81. ON the upside, above 90.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 91.86 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.71 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.07. Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 124.13 is still in progress after breaking out of the long term triangle pattern and a test on 79.75 low made in 1995 should be seen. The structure of the current fall from 101.43 will be important to determine whether 79.75 will be taken out decisively. Acceleration of the current fall from 101.43 will build up downside momentum which should then pull monthly MACD away from the signal line and will indicate that fall from 124.13 is resuming the multi-decade down trend. However, loss of downside momentum in the coming fall will indicate that it's possibly just part of a long term sideway pattern from 79.95 and strong support should be seen after breaching 79.75 to conclude the medium term fall.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6456 last week but reversed below mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and falls sharply to as low as 1.6086. The development indicates that corrective rise from 1.5829 has completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already and whole decline from 1.6875 should be resuming. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.5829 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 1.5706 key cluster support. On the upside, though, above 1.6284 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and turn focus back 1.6456 resistance
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503. However, note that break of 1.6456 resistance will in turn shift favor to the case that recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely developing into consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, should be limited by resistance zone of 1.7332/8236 and bring down trend resumption towards 1.4063 low. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 1.8236 fibonacci level holds.
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF surged to as high as 1.0494 last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.0506 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, current development indicates that whole rise from 0.9919 should be resuming. Hence, downside of the retreat from 1.0494 should be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0506 will target 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0996). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD's fall from 0.9327 extended further to as low as 0.8981last week and remains weak. Outlook in AUD/USD is quite mixed for the moment considering that dollar has been impressively strong elsewhere. Question is whether fall from 0.9327 is just a correction to rise from 0.8734 or it's developing into a larger decline. Nevertheless, in any case, initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 0.9145 minor resistance holds and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.8961. Sustained break there will shift favor to the case that fall fro 0.9327 is resuming the whole decline from 0.9404 and AUD/USD should drop through 0.8734 support. On other hand, strong rebound from 0.8961, or a break of 0.9145 minor resistance, will indicate that fall from 0.9327 is likely just a correction and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 0.9327 and then 0.9404.
In the bigger picture, the failure below 0.9404 high and deep pull back from 0.9327 mixes up the outlook of AUD/USD and we'll turn neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, one thing to note is that AUD/USD is losing upside momentum as seen with bearish divergence in daily MACD. Hence, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance as AUD/USD approaches 2008 high of 0.9849 and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8734 support will in turn revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.
In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD rebounded strongly last week and the break of 1.0412 resistance confirms that fall from 1.0744 has completed at 1.0223, ahead of 1.0205 key support as expected. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.0744 resistance next. Break there will also affirm the bullish view that choppy correction from 1.0851 has finished too. Stronger rise should then be seen to this 1.0851 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0462 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly in place and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above 1.0313 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. Break of 1.0851 will confirm this case by completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0205, 1.0223). In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. Also, in such case, we'll tentatively treat rise from 1.0205 as resumption of the whole up trend from 2007 low of 0.9056 and focus on the structure of the rise from 1.0205 for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP's fall extended to as low as 0.8650 last week before recovering. From a short term angle, some more recovery might be seen initially this week. But upside should be limited below 0.8855 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8686 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and bring fall resumption to 100% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8576 next.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates that rebound from 0.8399 has completed at 0.9410 already and fall from there could be the third leg of the whole correction pattern that started at 0.9799. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9153 resistance holds. Correction from 0.9799 could extend further to 0.7693/0.8186 support zone, with 100% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8399 from 0.9410 at 0.8010 in between.
In the long term picture, current development suggests correction from 0.9799 is still in progress and the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 is not ready to resume yet. Nevertheless, correction from 0.9799 is expected to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to continue to 261.8% projection of 0.5680 to 0.7258 from 0.6535 at 1.0666 eventually.
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4673 last week but continued to lose downside momentum and recovered. Touching of 1.4740 minor resistance turns intraday bias neutral and some consolidations could be seen in initially this week. Nevertheless, another fall is still expected as long as 1.4808 resistance holds. Below 1.4673 will target next key support level at 1.4577. However, note that break of 1.4808 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen to 1.4894/4988 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. A break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's fall fall from 134.36 extended further last week and the break of 126.88 support confirms that whole decline from 138.47 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 124.35 support and then 100% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 122.77 next. On the upside, above 128.38 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom might be in place on oversold condition and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 131.49 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of 126.88 support revives that case that medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as correction to long term down trend from 169.96, has completed last year at 139.21. Break of 124.35 support will further affirm this case. By then, we'll expect such long term down trend to resume for a new low below 112.10. On the upside, break of 134.36 resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view and suggest that EUR/JPY is still in consolidation to rise from 112.10 only. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. The corrective nature of the rise from 112.10 to 139.21 argues that whole fall from 169.96 is note completed yet. A break below 112.10 low will confirm that whole fall from 169.96 has resumed and should then target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's sharp fall last week and break of 145.96 support suggests that choppy rise from 139.26 has completed completed at 150.68 already. Also, consolidation pattern from 139.69 should have also finished too. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 141.99 support first. Break will affirm this bearish case and target 139.26 low next. On the upside, though, above 147.18 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and we'll stay neutral first in such case.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is possibly resuming as consolidation pattern from 139.69 has likely finished at 150.68 already. Break of 139.26 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. Break will further affirm the case that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.90 is resuming for another low below 118.81. This will remain the preferred view as long as 150.68 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.
