22NDJAN2010GOLD OUTLOOK :
Gold's break of 1119.2 minor support indicates that choppy recovery from 1075.2 has completed at 1163 already and whole correction from 1227.5 is possibly resuming. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 1075.2 support first. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 1144.8 minor resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1163 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Correction from 1227.5 is still in progress and is in favor to extend further towards 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However downside will likely be contained there and bring strong rebound. On the upside, a break of 1163 resistance is needed to indicate that fall fro 1227.5 has completed. Otherwise, more downside should be in favor.
SILVER OUTLOOK :
Silver's break of 18.055 minor support indicates that rise from 16.765 is already finished at 18.925. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should now be seen to 16.675 support next. On the upside, above 18.062 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 18.925 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 12.435 could still be in progress and another high above 19.50 cannot be ruled out. However, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall. So, we'll continue to look for reversal signal on next rise. On the downside, break of 16.765 support will revive the case that silver has topped out in medium term and will bring deeper decline towards lower medium term trend line at 14 level.
CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK :
Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral as it's still staying is tight range above 76.76. Another fall is expected as long as 79.62 minor resistance holds and below 76.76 will target 83.95 towards 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46. But downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 79.26 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 83.95 resistance first. Further break of 83.95 high will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again. However, note that sustained trading below 74.46 fibo support will argue that rise from 68.59 has completed and will turn focus back to this key support level.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress but after all, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to fall from 147.27. Therefore, we'd continue to look for reversal signal in case of another rise and as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, however, considering continuous bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, a break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
