GOLD REPORT:
Gold's fall from 1163 extended further to as low as 1083 last week and the development suggests that whole decline from 1127.5 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1075.2 support first. Break will confirm the bearish view and target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1117.8 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1163 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
SILVER REPORT :
Silver's fall from 18.925 extended further to as low as 16.88 last week and the development indicates that rebound from 16.765 has completed and whole decline from 19.50 is likely resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside for 16.765 low first. Break there will bring fall resumption to 100% projection of 19.50 to 16.756 from 18.925 at 16.19, which is close to 16.12 support. On the upside, above 17.52 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 18.925 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the sharp fall from 18.925 suggests that whole decline from 19.50 is still in progress and is resuming. The development revives that case that silver has already topped out in medium term at 19.50. Break of 16.19 projection target will suggest that fall fro 19.50 is developing into an impulsive move which further affirm the reversal scenario and bring deeper decline to lower medium term trend line at 14 level.
On the upside, above 18.925 will suggest that silver has not topped out yet. However, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
CRUDE OIL REPORT:
Crude oil's fall from 83.95 extended further to as low as 74.01 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 argues that whole rise from 68.59 is completed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to retest 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside.
In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
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